OPEC expects global energy demand to reach 357 million barrels in 2040

According to the World Energy News on November 6th, OPEC's "World Oil Outlook 2019" predicts that by 2040, energy demand will increase by 72 million barrels, when demand will reach 357 million barrels.

At the same time, demand from non-OECD member countries will increase by 75 million barrels over the same period, while demand from OECD countries will be reduced by 3 million barrels. China and India will account for about 50% of the growth in energy demand in non-OECD countries.

The report states: “The difference in demand growth in these regions is related to demographics, efficiency levels, climate change policies and other factors affecting the energy mix of countries and regions.”

By 2040, oil will continue to occupy the highest share of the energy structure, reaching 28%. In 2018, oil accounted for more than 31% of global energy demand, followed by coal (27%) and natural gas (23%).

Although natural gas will not exceed oil during the forecast period, it will increase from 65.6 million barrels to 90 million barrels, accounting for 25% of the energy structure and becoming the second largest energy source. The increase in natural gas demand is mainly in Asian and OPEC member countries. Renewable energy will grow by about 6.9% between 2018 and 2040.

Although coal demand is expected to decline after 2030, OPEC expects that this hydrocarbon will remain the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions.

According to the report, “by 2040, coal is expected to account for nearly 40% of total energy-related emissions, or 14.9 billion tons. By 2040, energy-related emissions will continue to increase to more than 38 billion tons, which is higher than the observation level of 2018. More than 4 billion tons."