Non-OPEC oil production will explode next year

According to Resta Energy's forecast on December 4, oil production in non-OPEC countries will usher in explosive growth next year. This will pose even more severe challenges for OPEC and Russia, which have been trying to balance the global oil market.

In 2020, although output declines in some countries, non-OPEC daily output will still increase by 2.26 million barrels, mainly due to tight oil and offshore production: It is expected that daily output of tight oil will increase by 1.35 million barrels; daily output offshore will increase by 1.25 million barrels, of which 900,000 barrels come from the deep sea.

In non-OPEC countries, driven by tight oil production, the United States is the country with the fastest oil production growth next year, with an estimated daily increase of 1.09 million barrels. Offshoring is mainly driven by Norway and Brazil. Norway's oil production is gradually entering its maturity period, driven by projects such as Johan Sverdrup, Oda, Valhall West side, and Trestekk. The increase next year may reach the highest level in history, with an increase of 527,000 barrels per day. Similarly, benefiting from the Buzios, Lula and Lara projects, Brazil's incremental growth next year is expected to reach a record high, with an increase of 459,000 barrels per day.

Next year, the non-OPEC oil increase is likely to break the highest record in 40 years. Historically, in 1978, daily output of non-OPEC countries increased by 1.96 million barrels due to increased production in Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Mexico, the highest value since 1960. If the non-OPEC daily increase reaches the predicted value next year, this record will be broken.

OPEC's recently released "World Energy Outlook 2040" 2019, agrees that the short-term production of tight oil in the United States will increase sharply, but believes that the supply prospects of long-term non-OPEC countries will grow steadily. The supply of tight oil in the United States increased sharply in the medium term, peaking in 2029, and it will slow down after a small increase. The daily output of non-OPEC countries will reach a peak of 72.6 million barrels in 2026, but will gradually decline thereafter, and by 2040 the daily output will drop to 66.4 million barrels. By the mid-to-late 1920s, except for Brazil and Kazakhstan, oil production in other non-OPEC countries will almost decline.