IEA: oil market recovery faces two uncertainties

The International Energy Agency IEA said that starting in May, oil market demand began to pick up, but the market supply and demand balance was still facing two major uncertainties on the fragile recovery road.

One of the uncertainties is whether OPEC + member states can achieve and maintain production cuts. The IEA said that although OPEC's Middle East heavyweight countries Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait promised to further reduce oil production, it is very uncertain how the entire OPEC + group will continue to observe production cuts.

Another uncertain factor is whether the spread of the epidemic will increase again. After the economy began to reopen and the blockade was eased, including some of Europe ’s worst-hit countries, including Italy and the United Kingdom, if the epidemic begins to rise again, there will be a greater uncertainty for the rebalancing of the oil market and the recovery of oil prices Sex will appear again.

If these uncertainties appear, it may endanger the IEA's optimistic view of the global oil market. In its May report, the International Energy Agency predicted that global oil demand will drop by 8.6 million barrels / day in 2020, which is a major demand loss this year, but slightly lower than the agency ’s forecast of 9.3 million barrels / day in the April report. Destruction of daily demand.

In the second quarter, the IEA expects that demand will fall by 19.90 million barrels per day.